AFL Power List: Round 17 (or the Hawks are not dead yet)

After losing one of the many candidates for match of the year, the Hawks looked gone for the season; and then Essendon lost to Richmond. So now the Hawks are out of the 8 only on percentage.

Let’s break it down: Essendon, Hawks and Port are on 8 wins; Carlton on 9; (Home games in blue)

Essendon plays West Coast (W), Brisbane (L), Saints (L), Fremantle (W), Hawks (L). Which puts them on 10 wins.

Hawks play Port (W), Saints (L), Crows (?), Richmond (W), Essendon (W). Which puts them on 11 wins and 1 “maybe”.

Port plays Hawks (L), Fremantle (W), Carlton (?), Brisbane (L), North (W). Which puts them on 10 wins and 1 “maybes”.

Only 1 can make it – I’ll say whoever wins out of the Hawks and Essendon.

For the top 4:

Bulldogs plays Fremantle (W), West Coast (W), Brisbane (?), Geelong (?), Collingwood (?). Which puts them on 13 wins and 3 “maybes”.

Collingwood play Brisbane (?), Adelaide (?), Richmond (W), Sydney (W), Bulldogs (?). Which puts them on 13 wins and 3 “maybes”

Crows play Geelong (L), Collingwood (?), Hawks (?), Eagles (W), Carlton (?). Which puts them on 12 wins and 3 “maybes”

Brisbane plays Collingwood (?), Essendon (W), Bulldogs (?), Port (W), Sydney (W). Which puts them on 14 wins and two maybes.

Carlton plays Kangaroos (W), Geelong (L), Port (?), Melbourne (W), Crows (?). Which puts them on 11 wins and 2 “maybes”

Only 2 can get there; Brisbane has the best draw; but it’s anyone’s really. If Carlton do an amazing turn around in form they can still get to 13 wins; but doubtful that will be enough.

So the big games this week are Brisbane-Lions and Hawks-Port. By my reckoning the Pies need to win the game more than the Lions do if they want to finish fourth. Whoever loses the Hawks-Port game is finished (unless the Eagles beat Essendon).

	Rank	LW	Team	Record	Comment
Safe
	1	1↔	St Kilda	17-0	The Saints are brutal.
	2	2↔	Geelong	15-2	Down 28 points in the last quarter, down your best back-man? No worries. Now they host the Crows.
	3	4↑	Collingwood	11-6	Huge win; the next two weeks they play the other 2 teams hoping for 4th spot – Brisbane and Adelaide.
	4	3↓	Bulldogs	11-6	The Bulldogs found out, that at best they’re playing to come runner’s up.
	5	5↔	Brisbane	11-6	A solid win, but now for the match against Collingwood to perhaps find out who will come fourth.
	6	7↑	Adelaide	11-6	Great win by the Crows. Now the reality of Geelong, Collingwood, Hawks to see where they will start the finals.
Need	some	wins
	7	6↓	Carlton	9-8	This week in The Age they talked about Carlton finishing 4th. I don’t think that will be the talk of this week.
	8	8↔	Hawthorn	8-9	A game they needed to win, should have won, but didn’t. With their low percentage they may need 13 wins to make the finals – which means beating everyone from here on in – including the Saints.
	9	9↔	Essendon	8-9	Pathetic; may have blown their finals hope.
	10	10↔	Port Adelaide	8-9	They tried their best.
No	chance
	11	11↔	Sydney	7-10	The Swans were about as impressive as the crowd size at Manuka.
	12	14↑	Richmond	4-12-1	A nice win for a team that at least still looks like it wants to win.
	13	13↔	North Melbourne	4-12-1	North now get a chance to restore some confidence to Carlton.
	14	16↑	Fremantle	4-13	Freo won the derby, perhaps because they had less to lose by winning than the Eagles.
	15	12↓	West Coast	4-13	West Coast played hard and will be disappointed they lost *cough*tanked*cough*.
	16	15↓	Melbourne	3-14	In fairness to the Demons, it was bloody cold in Canberra on Sunday, so I wouldn’t have wanted to play either.